India has officially climbed to become the world's fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan, a significant development announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam based on IMF 2025 data. The nation's nominal GDP now stands at USD 4.187 trillion, slightly ahead of Japan's USD 4.186 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India's economy to grow by 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. Further underscoring this growth trajectory, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) forecasts India to be the fastest-growing major economy in 2025, with an anticipated GDP growth of 6.6% and consumer spending growth of 6.2%.
To sustain a targeted 7% economic growth rate, the Chair of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) highlighted the necessity of increasing India's investment rate from the current 31-32% of GDP to 34-35% of GDP.
GST Collections and Reforms
In October, India's Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections reached a robust ā¹1.96 lakh crore, marking a 4.6% year-on-year growth. This increase occurred despite significant tax rate cuts on approximately 380 items. Starting November 1, small and low-risk businesses will benefit from an expedited GST registration process, receiving approval within three days. Furthermore, a simplified GST structure came into effect on November 1, 2025, replacing the previous four-slab system with two primary slabs and a special 40% rate for luxury and 'sin goods,' aiming for a more streamlined taxation regime.
Stock Market Performance and Investment Trends
The Indian equity markets commenced November on a cautious note, with the Sensex declining by 0.55% and the Nifty by 0.60% on October 31. This was attributed to profit booking and mixed global market cues. However, October proved to be a strong month for indices, recording their best monthly performance since March, buoyed by renewed buying interest from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and improved corporate earnings. FIIs injected ā¹14,610 crore into Indian equities in October, ending a three-month period of outflows. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also showed strong confidence, purchasing shares worth ā¹7,068.44 crore. Several prominent companies, including Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) and Coal India, have announced interim dividends and stock splits with record dates set between November 3 and 7, 2025.
RBI and Banking Sector Developments
New banking regulations, effective from November 1, 2025, introduce enhanced flexibility for bank account nominations, allowing customers to designate up to four nominees. Banks are now mandated to inform customers about this nomination facility and obtain a written declaration if a customer chooses not to nominate. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board convened in Udaipur to assess the evolving economic and geopolitical landscape. Discussions are also underway regarding the RBI's potential approval for banks' mergers and acquisitions (M&A) funding, which may necessitate adjustments to existing sensitive sector norms.
Trade and Other Key Business News
India's exports to the United States experienced a 37.5% decline over five months, largely due to tariffs. Efforts are ongoing to finalize a Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US, which could potentially reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 10-15%. In other business news, DLF's luxury housing project 'The Dahlias' successfully generated ā¹16,000 crore from the sale of 221 flats. Petrol demand in India saw a 7% increase in October, while diesel sales remained stable. Furthermore, the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bengaluru has been designated as a crucial hub for critical minerals research, aiming to bolster the nation's self-reliance in this vital sector.