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October 16, 2025 Indian Economy and Business: Markets Rebound, Trade Deficit Widens, and IMF Upgrades Growth Forecast (October 15, 2025)

Indian financial markets witnessed a positive rebound on October 15, 2025, with Sensex and Nifty closing higher, driven by global optimism and a decline in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, India's merchandise trade deficit significantly widened in September, reaching $32.15 billion. On a positive note, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded India's GDP growth forecast to 6.6% for the current year. The Indian Rupee also saw its steepest rise in four months against the US Dollar. Several major companies announced their Q2 FY26 results and strategic developments.

Indian Stock Market Rebounds Amid Global Optimism

Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, closing significantly higher. The BSE Sensex rose by 575.45 points (0.70%) to settle at 82,605.43, while the NSE Nifty50 gained 178.05 points (0.71%) to reach 25,323.55. This positive momentum was largely attributed to global optimism and a decline in crude oil prices. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty emerged as the top gainer, up 3.04%, followed by Nifty PSU Bank (up 1.67%) and Nifty Metal (up 1%). In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap 100 and SmallCap 100 also registered gains of 1.11% and 0.82% respectively. Top gainers on the BSE included Bajaj twins, Trent, Asian Paints, and Eternal (Zomato), while Infosys, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, and Axis Bank were among the top laggards.

Trade Deficit Widens Significantly in September

India's merchandise trade deficit expanded considerably in September 2025, reaching $32.15 billion, up from $24.66 billion in the same month last year. This widening deficit was primarily driven by a substantial increase in imports, which climbed 16.7% to $68.53 billion. Exports also saw a rise of 6.7% to $36.38 billion during the month. Non-petroleum imports were a major contributor to the jump in inbound shipments. The Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal is set to visit the US for trade talks, with India indicating a willingness to increase oil purchases from the US by an additional $15 billion to accelerate trade agreements and reduce its trade surplus.

IMF Upgrades India's GDP Growth Forecast

In a significant development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded India's GDP growth forecast for the current year to 6.6%, an increase from its earlier projection of 6.4%. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that this revision reaffirms India's strong and resilient economic momentum despite global headwinds, attributing it to the robust 7.8% GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of FY26. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also stated that India's macroeconomic fundamentals are very strong and that global tariffs are not a major concern, projecting a 6.8% growth for the fiscal year.

Indian Rupee Records Steepest Rise in Four Months

The Indian Rupee experienced a significant appreciation on Wednesday, October 15, closing at 88.06 against the US Dollar, marking its steepest rise in four months. This strengthening of the Rupee is largely attributed to substantial dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which market observers believe were aimed at curbing speculative long-dollar positions.

Corporate News and Earnings Highlights

  • Persistent Systems: Reported a strong Q2 FY26 with net profit growing 45.1% year-on-year (YoY) and revenue increasing 23.6% YoY.

  • Tech Mahindra: Announced a 4.4% YoY drop in net profit for Q2 FY26, although revenue grew by 5.1% YoY.

  • Infosys: Secured a major 15-year deal worth Ā£1.2 billion (approximately ā‚¹14,000 crore) from the UK's National Health Service Business Services Authority (NHSBSA) to build and manage a new workforce management platform.

  • TCS: Plans to retrain approximately one lakh employees annually to adapt to artificial intelligence (AI) advancements.

  • Axis Bank: Q2 net profit slipped by 26% due to higher provisions advised by the RBI.

  • Vedanta: Received approval from the Competition Commission of India (CCI) for its ā‚¹17,000 crore acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates Limited.

  • Hero MotoCorp (Vida): Its electric brand, Vida, surpassed Ola Electric to become India's fourth-largest electric two-wheeler manufacturer in October.

  • ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company: Reported an 18.1% YoY growth in its net profit.

Other Key Economic Developments

The unemployment rate in India inched up to 5.2% in September, with a notable rise in rural areas. In international trade relations, China filed a complaint against India in the World Trade Organization (WTO) concerning EV and battery subsidies. Additionally, the market regulator SEBI barred eight individuals from capital markets for alleged insider trading in Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) shares, involving illegal gains exceeding ā‚¹173 crore.

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