India's economic landscape is marked by a confluence of policy anticipation, fiscal adjustments, and market movements over the past 24-48 hours. The financial sector is particularly attuned to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with most analysts expecting the central bank to keep the repo rate unchanged. However, some speculate a potential rate cut could be a positive surprise. The RBI has also introduced a scheme to reduce unclaimed deposits by incentivizing banks and confirmed that the overnight weighted average call rate will continue as the operating target for monetary policy. Furthermore, several new regulations, including those concerning interest on advances, gold metal loans, and cheque clearing, are set to take effect from October 1, 2025.
On the fiscal front, India's fiscal deficit has expanded to ā¹5.98 trillion during the April-August period, accounting for 38.1% of the budgeted target for FY26. This widening comes amid ongoing discussions about economic growth trajectories. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected India's growth at 6.5% for both FY26 and FY27, citing global trade uncertainties and the impact of US tariffs. Morgan Stanley has highlighted a more ambitious target, suggesting that India needs to achieve a 12% growth rate to effectively address the existing job-skill mismatch within its workforce.
Trade policies are also in focus, with the government extending the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme by six months to support exporters. Additionally, India has initiated anti-dumping investigations into imports of Chinese PET films, kitchen glassware, and nylon. The impact of recent GST rate cuts appears positive for consumption, with festival season e-commerce sales already showing a significant jump, driven by increased demand for electronics, fashion, and home products. The government is actively monitoring e-commerce platforms to ensure compliance with the benefits passed on from these GST rate reductions.
The stock market has experienced some turbulence, with the Sensex seeing an eight-day slide and the Nifty falling below the 24,650 mark ahead of the RBI policy review. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have continued to withdraw from Indian equities for the third consecutive month, indicating cautious sentiment. Despite this, the IPO market remains active, with LG Electronics India planning an ā¹11,500 crore IPO opening on October 7, and Tata Capital's substantial ā¹15,512 crore IPO drawing strong institutional interest for its anchor book.
In other business news, Hyundai has significantly increased its investment commitment at its Talegaon plant to ā¹11,000 crore, partly spurred by the GST rate rejig. Maruti Suzuki is also anticipated to reduce prices for small cars, benefiting from the GST reforms. In the banking sector, SBI, Bank of Baroda, and Indian Overseas Bank have reduced their MCLR (Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate). The government is expected to announce its decision on interest rates for small savings schemes, including PPF, SCSS, and NSC, for the October-December quarter today, with indications suggesting rates might remain unchanged.