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September 11, 2025 Indian Economy and Business: Markets Extend Gains on Trade Optimism, Fitch Upgrades Growth Forecast

Indian equity markets continued their upward trend for the sixth consecutive session on September 10, 2025, buoyed by positive sentiment surrounding India-US trade talks, anticipated GST reforms, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fitch Ratings notably upgraded India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.9%, highlighting robust domestic demand. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran affirmed India's economic resilience and clarified that the nation is not pursuing an alternative to the US dollar.

Indian Stock Markets Maintain Upward Momentum

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50, closed higher for the sixth straight session on September 10, 2025. The Sensex advanced 323.83 points (0.40%) to settle at 81,425.15, while the Nifty 50 gained 104.50 points (0.42%) to reach 24,973.10. This extended winning streak was largely fueled by renewed optimism surrounding ongoing India-US trade negotiations, expectations of potential Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts, and hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut.

Sectoral performance saw IT and Public Sector Banks (PSBs) outperforming, with the Nifty IT index rising 2.63% and the PSU Bank index gaining 2.09%. Conversely, the auto sector was a top laggard, with the Nifty Auto index falling 1.28%, dragged down by stocks like Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, and Maruti Suzuki. Top gainers among Sensex constituents included Bharat Electronics (BEL), Wipro, HCL Technologies, HDFC Life, and Bajaj Finance.

Fitch Ratings Upgrades India's GDP Growth Forecast

Global rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) upwards to 6.9% from its previous estimate of 6.5%. This upgrade is attributed to strong domestic demand, rising consumer spending, and supportive financial conditions. Fitch also anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut towards the end of this year.

India's Economic Resilience and Reforms Highlighted

Reports and statements from key economic figures underscore India's robust economic standing amidst global uncertainties. According to a report by SBI Capital Markets, India's economy has demonstrated resilience despite global trade disruptions and fiscal challenges, driven by strong domestic consumption and government spending. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran reiterated this sentiment, stating that India's economy remains on a firm footing due to a decade of structural reforms, including advancements in digital and physical infrastructure.

Nageswaran also clarified that India is not exploring an alternative currency to the US dollar, dismissing related speculations. He noted that ongoing reforms, such as the simplified GST structure, are expected to inject approximately Rs 50,000 crore into the economy, further boosting domestic consumption and strengthening the nation's resilience.

Active Trade Dialogues with Key Global Partners

India is actively engaged in discussions for free trade agreements with several major economies. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that India is in "active dialogue" with the United States for a free trade agreement. Negotiations are also underway with the European Union and New Zealand for similar trade pacts, signalling India's strategic push to expand its international trade footprint.

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